An Honest Conversation About Assault Weapons Bans (Updated for 2022)

Before we dive into this, there is a little bit you should know about me. I’m an “IT guy” by trade with 19 years in the industry at the time of this writing. The systems I help to design, implement and maintain have a direct impact on the lives of millions of people from newborn to deathbed from day-to-day. In order to do this job, I have to analyze data and make informed decisions based on that data on a nearly daily basis to ensure the continued health and function of these systems. Needless to say, I take data and analytics quite seriously. I believe this article and the data contained within it is critically important to review and comprehend as we go into the 2020 legislative session where decisions will be made that impact millions of lives. That being said, this article is heavy on data analysis and requires a good deal of attention to get through it.

There are two bills (HB 1229 and SB 5217) going before the legislature this year regarding banning “assault weapons.” Being a gun owner who owns “assault weapons,” I have a number of bones to pick regarding these bills, but I’m going to put all of that aside for now.

We keep hearing about the need for common-sense gun reform, compromise, and being able to find common ground and have honest conversations. Well, let’s find that common ground and have that conversation today. This article is written specifically to those who don’t like guns, don’t believe the right to keep and bear arms is relevant today, or believe in the right to keep and bear arms, but don’t think that it applies to “assault weapons.” For my pro-2A friends, I welcome you to stay and read this article as well.

The first thing I’ll do here is set aside my “shall not be infringed” attitude, I’ll even leave the right to keep and bear arms out of this conversation. It clearly sets up a divide between the parties who have their interests at stake. I’m willing to weigh the merits of the proposed legislation squarely on facts and data in order to come to a logical conclusion.

If we can agree that facts and data are good common ground to work from, great.

What I’ll ask from you is that you set aside your emotions for this conversation and any preconceived notions you may or may not have about the right to keep and bear arms.

The next thing we’ll need to do is agree upon what data to use for this conversation. I know that you like to use data prepared by the CDC, which is used by folks like the Giffords Law Center, but the data only provides high-level views of the issues. I have a bit of a stronger affinity to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports because of their granularity that allows us to speak very specifically to the proposed legislation.

This poses a problem which we need to solve before we can move forward. Don’t worry I have a solution. First, we need to agree that if we’re talking about banning “assault weapons” that we are implying that the legislation has to do with their use in homicides. This means that the argument that there are 36,000 gun deaths per year is not relevant to the conversation. We need to break down your data from the CDC more granularly.

The 36,000 figure is comprised of a lot of variables, so we’re going to pull out the suicides as well as the law enforcement, unintentional, and undetermined shootings.

This is a good start, and allows us to start talking on the same page about this legislation. The only problem here is that the 12,000 gun homicides still doesn’t provide a granular enough view into what’s taking place in our nation and in our state to effectively talk about the merits of an “assault weapons” ban.

This is where the data I like from the FBI comes in handy. It can tell us more about what types of weapons were used in these homicides. There is still a problem though. The data from the FBI doesn’t match that from the CDC. In fact, there are some major holes in the FBI data since it is collected on a voluntary basis. The CDC also has some reporting issues as well, but overall is much more consistent.

This is ok though, we can solve this problem. I can concede that perhaps using the FBI’s data isn’t the best data to use overall due to a lot of non-reporting, however we really need the granularity that the FBI provides. We can solve this by merging the data together. Right?

Well, that’s a hot mess… But wait, all hope is not lost. One can spend 12+ hours slaving over Microsoft Excel building the proper formulas to represent this data as accurately as possible. The basics of what we do are this:

1. We assume the Total Homicide and Total Homicide by firearm values provided by the CDC are accurate and use them as the basis for all of our formulas.
2. We target massaging the known overlapping years first to determine our averages to be used for missing data points.
3. We update the granular homicide data for the overlapping years by targeting the firearm homicide deviation between the CDC and the FBI.
4. We apply logic to the Unknown Firearm Types and distribute that value fairly by percentages across Handguns, Rifles, and Shotguns in order to leave no category under represented.
5. We apply the averages to everything else.

This is a bit of an oversimplification, but what comes out the other side is data that is ultimately as close to an accurate reading as we can get. Even though this increases the numbers found on the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports considerably, I’m willing to take that hit for the sake of having an honest conversation.

Finally, let’s take a look at the data starting with the United States, and then Washington.

UNITED STATES HOMICIDE COUNTS

The Data for the United States shows overall that there is an average of 18,563 homicides per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that to 18,120. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 9,529. The worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) for homicides averaged 25,242 homicides.

Homicides by firearm overall averages 12,458 homicides by firearm per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 13,197 homicides by firearm. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 6,475, and the worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) average 17,446 homicides by firearm.

WASHINGTON STATE HOMICIDE COUNTS

The Data for Washington shows overall that there is an average of 189 homicides per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 229. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 64. The worst 5 years (1991 – 1995) for homicides averaged 283 homicides.

Homicides by firearm overall averages 109 homicides by firearm per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 152 homicides by firearm. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 37, and the worst 5 years (1991 – 1995) average 167 homicides by firearm.

UNITED STATES HOMICIDE COUNTS BY RIFLE AND UNARMED HOMICIDES

The Data for the United States shows overall that there is an average of 614 homicides by rifle per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 571. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 321. The worst 5 years (1991 – 1995) for homicides by rifle averaged 858 homicides.

Unarmed homicides overall averages 1,093 homicides per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 861 unarmed homicides. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 563, and the worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) average 1,491 unarmed homicides.

WASHINGTON STATE HOMICIDE COUNTS BY RIFLE AND UNARMED HOMICIDES

The Data for Washington shows overall that there is an average of 7 homicides by rifle per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 8. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 3. The worst 5 years (1993 – 1997) for homicides averaged 16 homicides.

Unarmed homicides overall averages 16 homicides per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 15 unarmed homicides. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 5, and the worst 5 years (2004 – 2008) average 23 unarmed homicides.

There is a Fatal Flaw in looking at Counts Alone…

There is a big fatal flaw in looking at counts. Our population changes. In 2018 our population was 327 million while in 1960 our population was 179 million. We really should be looking at homicide rates to paint the appropriate picture of what is taking place in both our nation and our state.

UNITED STATES HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 PEOPLE

The Data for the United States shows overall that there is an average rate of 7.50 homicides per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 5.60. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 5.14. The worst 5 years (1978 – 1982) for homicides averaged 10.16 homicides.

Homicides by firearm overall averages a rate of 5.03 homicides by firearm per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 4.08 homicides by firearm. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 3.49, and the worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) average 6.80 homicides by firearm per 100,000.

UNITED STATES HOMICIDE RATES PER 100,000 PEOPLE BY RIFLE AND UNARMED HOMICIDES

The Data for the United States shows overall that there is an average rate of 0.25 homicides by rifle per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 0.18. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 0.17. The worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) for homicides by rifle averaged 0.34 homicides.

Homicides by firearm overall averages a rate of 0.44 unarmed homicides per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 0.27 unarmed homicides. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 0.30, and the worst 5 years (1978 – 1982) average 0.60 homicides by firearm per 100,000.

WASHINGTON STATE HOMICIDE RATE PER 100,000 PEOPLE

The Data for Washington shows overall that there is an average rate of 3.85 homicides per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 3.15. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 2.15. The worst 5 years (1978 – 1982) for homicides averaged 5.33 homicides.

Homicides by firearm overall averages a rate of 2.20 homicides by firearm per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 2.08 homicides by firearm. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 1.25, and the worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) average 3.16 homicides by firearm per 100,000.

WASHINGTON STATE HOMICIDE RATES PER 100,000 PEOPLE BY RIFLE AND UNARMED HOMICIDES

The Data for the Washington shows overall that there is an average rate of 0.15 homicides by rifle per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years of data (2014 – 2018) make that 0.11. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 0.09. The worst 5 years (1993 – 1997) for homicides by rifle averaged 0.29 homicides.

Homicides by firearm overall averages a rate of 0.32 unarmed homicides per 100,000 per year from 1960 – 2018. The last 5 years (2014 – 2018) show an average of 0.21 unarmed homicides. The first 5 years (1960 – 1964) of data come to be an average of 0.18, and the worst 5 years (1990 – 1994) average 0.22 homicides by firearm per 100,000.

The Big Conclusion

Well, together we’ve crunched the numbers and have seen the data. There is only one conclusion that a person can draw from this. If a person is more likely to get beat to death by an unarmed assailant, than be shot to death by a rifle of any kind, not just an “assault weapon”, then the banning of “assault weapons” is clearly ludicrous and has no basis in reality. There is nothing “common-sense” about this legislation. In the face of this data, all of us must agree that this is the case. To have any other stance is to be in denial of the real world in which we live.

Now that this is over, I’m going to go put back on my “shall not be infringed” attitude, stand by our right to keep and bear arms.

If you want to do your own research, feel free to check out the Data Explorer where I have conveniently housed heavily sourced materials so that you can easily conduct your own independent research with confidence.